The INDIA bloc is teetering on the edge of disintegration, with Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar poised to defect. Sources suggest that Kumar may perform a last-minute reversal and align with the BJP in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. In the past two days, crucial leaders, Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal, have distanced themselves from the INDIA bloc, rejecting any alliance with the Congress and opting for independent campaigns in Bengal and Punjab.
Nitish Kumar, potentially sharing a stage with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a February 4 rally in Bettiah, has summoned all his MLAs to Patna. The party faces a dilemma—either dissolve the assembly and conduct simultaneous elections with the Lok Sabha or allow Kumar to persist as Chief Minister, a prospect met with resistance from local leaders. The party is adopting a wait-and-watch approach as events unfold within the Nitish Kumar camp.
In the 243-member Bihar assembly, the majority mark is 122. The RJD holds 79 seats, and Kumar could form a government with the BJP’s 82 seats and 45 from his Janata Dal United. Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal has 79 seats.
Amidst the political turmoil, the Bihar Governor, originally scheduled to travel to Goa, has canceled his plans. Though state BJP leaders remain skeptical about Nitish Kumar’s return, the party’s top leadership has imposed a gag order on the state unit, instructing them not to criticize the Chief Minister.
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For Nitish Kumar, 72, this would mark his fifth switch in allegiance since 2013, oscillating between the NDA and the mahagathbandhan while retaining his position as Chief Minister. Signs of discord have been evident, with Kumar’s recent comments on dynastic politics aggravating tensions. The lack of clarity in the INDIA bloc’s poll preparations and delay in seat-sharing talks for the Lok Sabha polls have further fueled Kumar’s discontent.
The shift began with Nitish Kumar dismissing Lallan Singh and reclaiming the JDU chief position. It is suggested that Singh failed to effectively lobby for Kumar’s aspirations within the INDIA bloc, leading to Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal proposing Mallikarjun Kharge for the top post.
The Bharat Ratna conferred on former Bihar Chief Minister Karpoori Thakur seems to have been a premeditated turning point. Mahagathbandhan allies, caught off guard, are attempting to placate the disgruntled Chief Minister. Lalu Yadav has reached out to Kumar, and the RJD has called a meeting of its leaders in Patna. The Congress is also making efforts to engage with Kumar as the INDIA bloc faces a significant setback in its campaign strategy and seat-sharing plans with the potential departure of Nitish Kumar.
