The early signs suggest Barnier might indeed win a confidence vote, at least for now. Barnier, at 73, becomes the oldest Prime Minister in France’s Fifth Republic, taking over from Gabriel Attal, who was the youngest at 34. Macron’s centrist Ensemble coalition holds 160 seats in the 577-member National Assembly, while Barnier’s Republicans (LR) have 47 seats, including allies. More importantly, the far-right National Rally, with its 142 members, has indicated it will support Barnier, allowing him to surpass the 289-vote majority threshold required for approval.
National Rally leader Marine Le Pen has offered conditional support for Barnier, noting that he meets their basic requirement of being “respectful of different political forces” and has never alienated her party, unlike some other political factions. Barnier’s stance as a former EU chief Brexit negotiator and his 2022 presidential campaign platform advocating limits on immigration are viewed favorably by the National Rally, although he didn’t get to contest due to his party’s nomination choices.
In his first remarks, Barnier struck a conciliatory tone, expressing openness to forming a government with representatives across the political spectrum, including from the left. However, this did little to appease the left-wing New Popular Front, the largest bloc in the Assembly with 180 seats. They were particularly frustrated after Macron chose not to appoint their candidate, 37-year-old Lucie Castets, as Prime Minister. The timing of Barnier’s appointment—soon after a renewed appeal by the left for Castets to be considered—added to their grievances.
The response from the New Popular Front was swift and critical. The Socialist Party called Barnier’s appointment lacking in both “political and republican legitimacy,” with party leader Olivier Faure criticizing the decision to select a Prime Minister from a party that finished a distant fourth in the elections. They also pointed out how Barnier’s party had stayed out of the centrist-left alliance in the second round of voting that successfully blocked the National Rally’s rise.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the far-left France Unbowed party, was even more direct, accusing Macron of “stealing the election from the French people.” Castets also criticized the appointment, saying, “We have a Prime Minister completely dependent on the National Rally.” The left organized protests across France, with Mélenchon leading a demonstration in Paris under the slogan “For democracy, stop Macron’s coup.” The Socialist Party, however, abstained from the protests.
This strong reaction from the left points to the answer to a second question: What does this mean for Macron as he reaches the midpoint of his second and final term in office? The entrenchment of both the far right and the far left among the top three political forces in France suggests that polarization is here to stay. It will take an extraordinary effort for the centrists to regain significant ground.
For Macron himself, the situation is precarious. After a series of political missteps, including calling a snap election when the National Rally was making gains in the European Parliament, he has managed to alienate both the left and the right without keeping either out of power. His strategy of forming a temporary alliance with the left to block the National Rally, only to then bypass them by appointing a Prime Minister who will rely on the far-right’s support, represents a dramatic reversal that damages his credibility.
Meanwhile, the National Rally is likely to leverage its newfound role as a kingmaker to its fullest advantage, remembering how it was excluded from power earlier. Macron, like France itself, finds himself caught between two polarized extremes, with limited room for maneuver.
